»    »  South Africa Commercial Banking Report

South Africa Commercial Banking Report

Published OnMay, 2016
Pages77
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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"BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.

Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.

Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk te

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2015 . . 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) . 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 . . 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 . . . 8
SWOT ...... 9
Commercial Banking .... 9
Political . 10
Economic ........ 11
Operational Risk ....... 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Industry Trend Analysis ....... 14
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ........ 17
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ....... 17
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . . 18
Market Overview ... 19
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook ... 19
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014 19
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 20
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn) . . . . 21
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 22
Economic Analysis ..... 23
Competitive Landscape . 26
Market Structure ....... 26
Protagonists ... 26
Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector . . . . 26
Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe  26
List Of Banks .. 27
Table: Member Banks 27
Company Profile .... 29
Absa Bank (Barclays Africa Group)  29
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 31
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 32
Table: Key Ratios (%) 32
African Bank ... 33
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 35
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 35
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 35
Table: Key Ratios (%) 36
FirstRand ........ 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 40
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) 40
Investec . 41
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 43
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 43
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) 44
Nedbank Group  45
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 47
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 47
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 48
Standard Bank . 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 51
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) . 51
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 51
Table: Key Ratios (%) 52
Regional Overview  53
Industry Trend Analysis ....... 53
Global Industry Overview ........ 56
Industry Forecast ...... 56
The Reserves Penalty  56
Mixed Results So Far  59
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? .... 64
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent ...... 65
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary 67
Demographic Forecast .. 68
Demographic Outlook  68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) . . . . 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) . . 70
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) . 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) . . . 71
Methodology . 73
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 73
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 75
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 77

Adcock Ingram Ltd in Consumer Health (South Africa)
Allergy Care, Herbal/Traditional Products, OTC, Paediatric Consumer Health, Sports Nutrition, Vitamins and Dietary Supplements, Weight Management. Data coverage:
Chilled Processed Food in South Africa
Chilled Fish/Seafood, Chilled Lunch Kits, Chilled Noodles, Chilled Pizza, Chilled Processed Meat, Chilled Ready Meals, Chilled Soup, Chilled/Fresh Pasta, Fresh Cut Fruits, Prepared Salads.Data coverage:
Clover SA (Pty) Ltd in Packaged Food (South Africa)
Baby Food, Bakery, Canned/Preserved Food, Chilled Processed Food, Confectionery, Dairy, Dried Processed Food, Frozen Processed Food, Ice Cream, Impulse and Indulgence Products, Meal Replacement, Meal Solutions, Noodles, Nutrition/Staples, Oils and Fats, Pasta, Ready Meals, Sauces, Dressings and Condiments, Snack Bars, Soup, Spreads, Sweet and Savou
Canned/Preserved Food in South Africa
Canned/Preserved Beans, Canned/Preserved Fish/Seafood, Canned/Preserved Fruit, Canned/Preserved Meat and Meat Products, Canned/Preserved Pasta, Canned/Preserved Ready Meals, Canned/Preserved Soup, Canned/Preserved Tomatoes, Canned/Preserved Vegetables, Other Canned/Preserved Food. Data coverage:

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