View: The outlook for South Africa's metals industry is increasingly troubled as persistently lowoutput prices, rising energy costs and further intense wage negotiations with unions are set to plague thesector. Metals consumption growth will perform better than production growth, due to solid demand growthfrom the autos sector. We expect this demand growth to be met in large part by increased imports, asinvestment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel,on the world market.
In terms of the domestic market, metals consumption will track broader economic growth in South Africa,which we anticipate to be slow but steady with a modest recovery expected over coming years. We seeautos production growth as a key driver of metals consumption. We forecast autos production to grow by anannual average of 2.9% over 2014-2018, while construction industry value will grow by 3.9% y-o-y overthe same period.
Industry View 7
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Little Incentive To Invest 11
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants 13
Table: South Africa - Steel Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes) 17
Table: South Africa - Steel Production & Trade Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 17
Aluminium: Diminishing As An Export Hub 18
Table: South Africa - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 21
Nickel: Declining Platinum Output To Constrain Nickel 21
Table: South Africa - Refined Nickel Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 24
Regulatory Development 25
Tax Regime 26
Table: South Africa - Political Overview 26
Commodities Forecast 28
Commodity Strategy 28
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 30
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 30
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 31
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 33
Zinc: Channelling Support 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts 37
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 37
Commodities Forecast 38
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 38
Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities 47
Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers 49
Company Profile 50
Company Strategy 53
Latest Financial Results 54
Company Details 55
Financial Data 55
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 55
Cross Checks 56
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