South Africa Freight Transport Report

South Africa Freight Transport Report

Published OnFeb, 2015
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on South Africa's freight transport sector in 2015.
Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, we believe that growth
in the mining industry will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors. However, imports of
containerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as unemployment rises.
South Africa registered an increase of 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in freight volumes in September 2014,
according to Statistics South Africa, based on a preliminary land transport survey. Income registered an
increase of 12.3% During Q314 the income from freight transportation rose by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y),
with mining, quarrying, agriculture and forestry key contributors to this rise. These dynamics will continue
to support growth in freight transport volumes in 2015.

Table of Contents

Industry View 7
Freight Transport 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Air Freight 14
Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2011-2018). 14
Rail Freight 14
Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2011-2018). 16
Road Haulage 16
Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2011-2018) 17
Maritime Freight 17
Table: Maritime Freight Throughput (South Africa 2011-2014) 18
Trade 18
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018) 18
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018) 19
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn). 20
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn). 20
Market Overview 22
Industry Trends And Developments 27
Rail Freight 27
Logistics And Road Haulage 27
Air Freight 28
Maritime Freight 28
Company Profile 30
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) 30
Grindrod 34
Safmarine 38
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL) 42
Political Outlook 44
Domestic Politics 44
Long-Term Political Outlook 46
Table: South Africa Political Overview49
Macroeconomic Forecasts 51
Economic Analysis 51
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR51
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2009-2018) 56
Demographic Forecast 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025). 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)60
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63
Sources 64

South Africa Freight Transport and Shipping Report
BMI View: Bar the country's shipping sector, which is being particularly hindered by weak consumer demand and declines in coal production, South Africa's freight modes are all expected to post positive growth in 2016. However, going forward, risks are considerably to the downside. The country's poor economic outlook, unsustainable structur

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